An Election Year Test of Loyalty, Trump Makes It Difficult
“He views himself less as a titan dominating the world stage than a maligned outsider engaged in a struggle to be taken seriously.”
~ The New York Times on Donald Trump
December 9, 2017
Despite the alternate reality shamelessly offered by President Trump and his various spokespeople, the Trump presidency is in serious trouble and it becomes more likely every day that he will not complete his full term in office.
A week following the guilty plea of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, there is mounting evidence coming to us through reliable reporting that there were connections between people in the Trump campaign and the Russian government, that Flynn intended to use his office to help his former business clients, that Trump knew about Flynn’s plans, that Trump and his closest advisers were more than willing to take help from the Russians during the campaign, and that the president did indeed try to obstruct justice by firing former FBI Director James Comey.
It appears many of the decisions that have brought us here were made during the campaign, the transition period and the first few weeks of the administration. One of the biggest mistakes was the decision to keep the circle of advisers around Trump small and dominated by members of his family and others who lack political or government experience.
From the beginning, Trump and this band of bumpkins have been a danger to the country and the world. To this day they continuously prove they have no concept of their responsibility as top officials of the American government. They see themselves only as the winners of the last election entitled to enjoy the spoils of that victory and use it to their advantage. If Trump were to lose his bid for re-election in 2020, it is not clear he and his team would agree to leave. It might be the first time in our history that a peaceful transfer of power at the end of a presidential term is in doubt. Then again, it is likely that Trump will be gone before then.
It has been revealed that special investigator Robert Mueller is probing Trump’s finances. His team has obtained thousands of electronic files and computer hardware. The investigation is moving into areas that could lead to the discovery of illegal activity not directly related to the original question about collusion with the Russians. This is what Trump should fear most. Even if President Trump is never charged with a crime while he holds office it is likely others around him will be. For an administration that has been hobbled by the shadow of an FBI investigation since its early days the indictment of people close to the president would be devastating.
The resignation of Senator Al Franken and two members of the House of Representatives over sexual misconduct claims is another warning sign for the Trump White House. Additional resignations are expected in the coming weeks as the news media and the public push for the release of previously secret settlements that have kept sexual harassment claims against members of Congress hidden from public view for years. Trump somehow survived his own sexual harassment scandal during the 2016 campaign, but in the new #metoo environment it seems likely those issues will be raised again and could result in pressure for some type of public sanction against the president.
The Mueller investigation will probably end not with an indictment of the president, but with a report to Congress. If Mueller finds evidence of ethical or criminal wrong-doing, from financial crimes to obstruction of justice, he will present those findings as possible evidence of impeachable offenses. Congress, currently led by Republicans, will have to decide whether to proceed in that direction.
It has been noted that there seems to be nothing Trump can do in terms of personal behavior or conduct in office that Republicans are not willing to ignore. It has also been noted that the recommendation to impeach Richard Nixon and the impeachment of Bill Clinton both happened when the House was controlled by the opposing political party. The lesson is that no president has ever been impeached and removed from office by members of his own party. (We should remember though that Nixon’s resignation came after Senate Republicans informed him he had lost their support).
There is a first time for everything. What makes President Trump different are his thin Republican credentials. He is truly a Republican In Name Only. Most members of the Republican establishment did not support his candidacy and would have been happy to accept anyone other than Trump as the Republican nominee. House Speaker Paul Ryan went out of his way to offer no help to Trump as a candidate, although some argue he should have gone even further. Politically, top Republicans have no imperative to remove Trump from office today, but a well-documented report from Mueller could change that. It would certainly give evidence to the national news media, which is all-in on the concept that Trump is not fit for office. Intense media coverage puts pressure on politicians to take action even when that is the last thing they want to do.
A final factor weighing against Trump is that his second year in office is an election year for members of Congress. Trump and his conduct will be a campaign issue. At some point even Republicans will have to make a choice between defending the president or taking a position against him to ensure their own re-election. With every step Trump takes to topple norms of decent behavior he makes it harder for congressional Republicans to defend him publicly even though they should be his strongest allies. When it comes to handing out life preservers politicians of all parties save themselves first. The president is easily replaced by another Republican who would be eager to take over: Vice President Mike Pence.
At the weekend, the New York Times published a feature describing President Trump’s “hour by hour battle for self-preservation.” It remains a mystery how a person smart enough to be elected president of the United States cannot help but behave in a manner that seems sure to bring him down. It is true that history suggests removal from office is rare and often requires partisan incentive, but conventional wisdom never met Donald J. Trump.
