When Your Best Friend Tells You It’s Over. Canada And The Rest Of the World Can’t Trust The U.S.
Over the last decade there has been a debate in this country(USA) over whether to take Donald Trump seriously when he makes outrageous statements in public or posts them online. As Americans, we have that luxury. Leaders of foreign nations however, have no choice but to take the man at his word. To do less might mean putting your country at risk. Nothing makes that point better than the words of Mark Carney, delivered on the night he secured enough votes to become the prime minister of Canada.
Seemingly out of nowhere, shortly after winning re-election, Trump began attacking Canada. He taunted then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, by calling him “Governor Trudeau.” That got an uncomfortable laugh in some circles so Trump began referring to Canada as the 51st state. Then he accused the Canadians of unfair trade practices, ignoring the fact that our current trade agreement with Canada was negotiated during Trump’s first term.
People began to ask if it was all a joke and Trump found a way to make clear he was not joking. He kept pressing, he kept needling until it became down right hostile. And now, the Canadians are scared. They are worried. They are on the defensive against a country they considered their closest friend and ally. And many Americans are as confused. Why Canada? Don’t we have much bigger problems elsewhere without creating one where none existed?
As U.S. courts deliberate over whether we are at war with Venezuela, there can be no doubt Canada is on a war footing with the United States. Before Carney, Trudeau made it clear his country will not back down in the face of a bullying U.S., and Carney used the same message — in what should have been an underdog campaign — to win a close election to become the next prime minister.
At his victory celebration in Ottawa, Carney made clear the biggest threat facing his country. His words were as startling to American ears as they were to the Canadians in the room. It is understandable that you might ask; how it got to this point?
“As I’ve…warned — America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. But these are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never ever happen,” Carney said as he stared down the barrel of the lens of the television camera. The crowd erupted in defiant applause. President Trump has found many different ways to give his supporters an enemy to focus their anger on. Now Trump is that enemy for Canada.
This story is not limited to the U.S.-Canada relationship because in capitals around the world national leaders must “prepare for the worst, not hope for the best,” as Carney said on election night. The first and most important job of any national leader is to keep their country safe and secure. When a foreign leader threatens another nation’s right to exist, the threat must be taken seriously. It can’t be passed over as a poor attempt at humor or international teasing. Carney’s words are a reflection of what the rest of the world is thinking, but so far has had no reason to voice aloud.
Trump looks to Canada and sees a real estate opportunity. Carney looks back and sees “betrayal.” Betrayal that has permanently altered the U.S.-Canadian relationship. As a result, Carney is beginning his time as prime minister by promising to turn away from the United States to seek enduring and more meaningful partnerships with European countries and other nations. In other words, Mr. Trump; the damage has been done, you have shown the Canadians that the U.S. cannot be relied on, and the friendship can never be the same.
The job of president of the United States is probably one of the most difficult and complicated in the world. The task of controlling the executive branch alone is overwhelming, but then there is the relationship with Congress, the need to pursue a domestic and international agenda, and of course the relationship with countries around the world. With that general understanding one might assume that a new president would not want to — on his own — add to the list of challenges by upsetting a partnership that has worked for both sides for so long. There was no reason for Trump to pick a fight with Canada. Just as he has upset global trade with his tariff plan, the rift with Canada is a crisis of his own making.
As is often the case with Trump, the roots of the issue may stem from his personal relations with a foreign leader — in this case former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — and Trump’s sense of where Canada falls on the list of great global powers.
Trudeau fostered a reputation as an empathetic leader of a country full of friendly people. For Trump, empathy is a sign of weakness to be exploited. For this reason — and perhaps this reason alone — Trump would never take Trudeau seriously. This led to the Governor Trudeau and 51st state jabs. As for Canada, in Trump’s view it’s simply a second or third rate country not on par with the U.S., Russia, or China. Therefore, it exists to be taken advantage of.
This column is posting on the day Prime Minister Carney is due to travel to Washington to meet with Trump at the White House. Will he be treated like Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Nayib Bukele, or as an equal? Carney is not an equal to Trump when it comes to personal and professional accomplishment. Carney is superior in that respect. His resume is that of a serious person, who has had a successful career based on the merits of his work, and has now achieved unpredicted success in the field of electoral politics.
Based on his public words and actions since he launched his campaign, Carney is unlikely to lead with empathy when he meets Trump in person. He is more likely to lead with the hard truth and steel he believes is required at what he has called “one of those hinge moments of history.”
“Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over,” Carney told Canadians on election night. “The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that…has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over.”
In politics, diplomacy, and in relationships of any kind; words matter. With just a few impertinent words directed at a close friend, Trump has taken from the United States a trusted ally. The deliberate act of a man who sees the world as being divided between winners and losers, but has no sense of what it truly takes to win on behalf of the country he has been given the privilege to temporarily lead.
Here in the United States we have the luxury of arguing over whether to pay attention to what often sounds like Trump’s nonsense. As Prime Minister Carney has shown, the rest of the world does not have that luxury. When the person occupying the White House speaks, the rest of the world must take it seriously, and therefore so should we.
Inflection Point
May 6, 2025
For more writing on politics, public relations, public affairs and journalism from Dean Pagani visit Media Attaché on Substack.
